After Iran talks falter, the big question is 'what happens next?'

High-stakes Vienna talks on Iran nuclear deal end without breakthrough, leaving a critical diplomatic vacuum and heightened regional tensions. | Contesto: cronaca

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• After Iran talks falter, the big question is 'what happens next?'

Contesto

High-level talks in Vienna aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal concluded on Sunday without a breakthrough, following an intense 21-hour final session. The negotiations, which involved indirect talks between the United States and Iran mediated by European powers, failed to bridge the gaps necessary to restore the landmark agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The impasse leaves a critical diplomatic vacuum and raises immediate questions about the risk of a renewed nuclear crisis and escalating regional tensions. The core dispute remains the sequence of returning to compliance. The United States, which withdrew from the deal in 2018 under the Trump administration, insists that Iran must first roll back the significant advances it has made in its nuclear program since that withdrawal. Iran, which has consistently denied seeking nuclear weapons, demands that the US must first lift all the punishing economic sanctions reimposed after 2018. European mediators shuttled between the two delegations in separate hotels, but could not forge a compromise on this fundamental point of contention. The 21 hours of talks, while demonstrating a last-ditch effort, proved insufficient to overcome 47 years of entrenched mutual hostility and distrust. The collapse of these talks carries profound implications for regional and global security. Iran has steadily increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium and restricted international monitoring, bringing it within a much shorter timeframe of potentially producing material for a nuclear weapon. This progression has alarmed Israel and Gulf Arab states, increasing the likelihood of a military confrontation. Simultaneously, the failure to secure a deal removes a potential source of stability in a volatile region and complicates Western efforts to address other challenges posed by Iran, including its ballistic missile program and support for regional proxy groups. Domestic politics in both Washington and Tehran have also played a decisive role in hardening positions. In Iran, a new, more conservative government under President Ebrahim Raisi took a tougher stance than its predecessor,...

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Categoria: cronaca