Bank of England deputy governor warns stock markets will fall; Gulf crude oil production ‘more than halved’ since war began – business live

Bank of England deputy governor warns stock markets face significant fall as Gulf oil production more than halves amid Iran conflict. | Contesto: cronaca

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• Bank of England deputy governor warns stock markets will fall; Gulf crude oil production ‘more than halved’ since war began – business live

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LONDON — The Bank of England’s deputy governor has issued a stark warning that stock markets are likely to fall, as the Iran war continues to disrupt global energy supplies and Gulf crude oil production has more than halved since the conflict began. Sarah Breeden, the deputy governor for financial stability, said the financial system must be prepared for a sharp correction in share prices, even if the timing remains uncertain. “I’m not saying it will happen today, tomorrow, in 12 months’ time,” Breeden said, “but the system needs to be resilient.” Her remarks came as oil prices hovered around $105 per barrel, a level significantly above the sub-$70 price seen at the start of 2026, though below the $120-plus peak following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The warning from Breeden appeared to weigh on investor sentiment immediately. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, suggested her comments may have pushed markets down this morning. “The stock market reflects what investors think will happen in the future,” Mould said. “While markets have been wobbly since the Middle East conflict unfolded, they didn’t pull back sharply in the early stages of the crisis, and more recently they’ve shown resilience. That suggests investors are confident the war will end quickly, and elevated oil and gas prices will retreat as supply is restored.” Breeden’s caution, however, highlights a disconnect between current market optimism and the underlying risks posed by sustained geopolitical instability and energy price inflation. The economic toll of the conflict is already visible in consumer behavior and corporate outlooks. In Britain, retail sales rose sharply as the Iran war prompted what analysts described as “panic at the pumps,” with motorists rushing to fill up amid fears of fuel shortages. The surge in demand underscores the fragility of supply chains and the vulnerability of households to energy price shocks. Meanwhile, companies are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the months ahead, issuing cautious outlook statements as input costs rise and consumer spending power erodes. “One could argue current oil prices are high enough to cause pain for businesses and...

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Categoria: cronaca