BOJ could raise price outlook sharply on oil shock, central bank watchers say

Analysts predict the Bank of Japan may significantly upgrade its inflation forecast due to surging oil prices, while war-driven uncertainty threatens growth. | Contesto: cronaca

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• BOJ could raise price outlook sharply on oil shock, central bank watchers say

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The Bank of Japan is poised to sharply raise its price outlook for the coming fiscal year, according to central bank watchers, as a global oil price shock driven by Middle East conflict reshapes the nation's economic landscape. Simultaneously, the profound uncertainty emanating from the same regional strife is expected to lead officials to consider downgrading their forecast for economic growth. The potential dual adjustment of inflation upwards and growth downwards presents a complex policy challenge for the central bank as it prepares for its next quarterly outlook report. The anticipated revision hinges on the dramatic surge in crude oil prices, a direct consequence of escalating tensions and supply fears in the Middle East. This external 'cost-push' inflationary pressure is flooding into an economy already grappling with persistent price rises, forcing a recalibration of the BOJ's projections. While the bank has long sought to achieve stable 2% inflation, the current driver—imported energy inflation—is a double-edged sword, boosting headline figures while squeezing household and corporate budgets. The move to lower the growth forecast underscores the broader economic risks. Prolonged conflict and sustained high energy costs threaten to dampen business investment and consumer spending, the twin engines of Japan's fragile economic recovery. Officials are weighing the likelihood that corporate sentiment will sour and that real household income, eroded by inflation, will contract, slowing the pace of expansion. This creates a precarious scenario of stagflationary pressures, where rising prices coincide with weakening economic activity. For the BOJ, this evolving picture complicates the path toward normalizing ultra-loose monetary policy. Governor Kazuo Ueda has cautiously laid the groundwork for a shift away from negative interest rates, a process contingent on sustainable wage growth accompanying price rises. The current oil shock, however, may deliver the wrong kind of inflation—one that hurts demand rather than fostering a virtuous cycle of rising wages and prices. Policymakers must now discern whether underlying domestic inflation momentum remains intact or...

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Categoria: cronaca