دونالد ترامب: أعتقد أن حرب إيران يمكن أن تنتهي قريباً جداً

Trump predicts swift end to Iran tensions as Revolutionary Guard threatens to shut down Gulf shipping lanes in retaliation for US blockade. | Contesto: cronaca

Punti chiave

• دونالد ترامب: أعتقد أن حرب إيران يمكن أن تنتهي قريباً جداً

Contesto

President Donald Trump stated in an interview with Fox Business that he believes a war with Iran could end "very soon," even as Iran's Revolutionary Guard issued a stark counter-threat to block all imports and exports through the Gulf and the Sea of Oman if the American blockade of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continues. The remarks, made during a televised discussion, highlight the volatile and contradictory signals emanating from the two adversaries, whose standoff has brought the region to the brink of a major military confrontation. The President's optimistic assessment of a near-term resolution comes amid a significant escalation of military and economic pressure on Tehran. The U.S. has recently intensified its "maximum pressure" campaign, reinforcing naval assets in the Persian Gulf and seeking to strangle Iran's oil exports to zero. However, Trump's characterization of a potential swift conclusion stands in sharp contrast to the daily realities of the crisis, which has seen tanker seizures, drone shootdowns, and attacks on oil infrastructure. The immediate catalyst for the Iranian threat is the U.S. naval blockade, described as a "siege" in the Iranian statement, targeting its ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow chokepoint is arguably the world's most critical oil transit lane, with about a fifth of global oil consumption passing through it daily. The Revolutionary Guard's warning represents a direct threat to enact Iran's long-standing contingency plan to close the Strait—a move that would trigger a global economic shock and almost certainly lead to war. Analysts point to the profound disconnect between the two statements. Trump's comment suggests a belief that Iran is nearing a breaking point and will soon capitulate to U.S. demands to renegotiate the 2015 nuclear deal and curb its regional activities. Conversely, the Revolutionary Guard's declaration signals a hardening of resolve and a commitment to asymmetric retaliation, indicating that Tehran is preparing to escalate, not concede. This dynamic creates a perilous situation where one side perceives the other as ready to fold, while the other is actively preparing to strike back....

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Risk score: 0.1

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Categoria: cronaca