Gulf worries U.S.-Iran talks may cement Tehran's 'golden' grip on Hormuz

As U.S.-Iran diplomacy shifts focus, Gulf states fear a new deal will formalize Tehran's strategic dominance over the world's most critical oil chokepoint. | Contesto: cronaca

Punti chiave

• Gulf worries U.S.-Iran talks may cement Tehran's 'golden' grip on Hormuz

Contesto

Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran have subtly but significantly shifted, with current negotiations now appearing to center less on rolling back Tehran's missile program and more on managing uranium enrichment levels and, tacitly, accepting Iran's formidable leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. This strategic pivot, emerging from ongoing talks, has triggered profound anxiety among Gulf Arab states, who worry that a potential agreement may cement what they view as Iran's 'golden' grip on the world's most vital maritime oil artery. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow seaway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is arguably the single most important chokepoint for global energy supplies. Through its waters flows approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and a significant portion of its liquefied natural gas. For decades, Iran has cultivated the capability to threaten or disrupt this traffic through a combination of asymmetric naval tactics, coastal missile batteries, and proxy forces—a card it has repeatedly hinted it is willing to play during periods of heightened tension. The apparent de-prioritization of Iran's missile capabilities in current talks is seen by regional observers as a de facto acknowledgment of this reality, raising fears that any new understanding will institutionalize Tehran's dominance. This perceived shift represents a stark departure from earlier diplomatic frameworks, where constraining Iran's ballistic missile development and regional proxy network was a paramount concern for Washington and its Gulf allies. The focus now seems narrowed to the nuclear file, specifically the levels to which Iran can enrich uranium and the verification mechanisms to ensure it remains a threshold nuclear state. While non-proliferation experts argue this is a necessary and pragmatic focus to prevent an immediate crisis, Gulf security analysts contend it leaves the broader architecture of regional intimidation untouched. "The missile program is the delivery vehicle for both conventional and potential nuclear threats, and it is directly linked to Hormuz," noted one regional official, speaking on background. "To sideline it is to grant a...

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Categoria: cronaca