IMF predicts Iran war will slow economic growth and raise inflation globally

A widening conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail fragile global economic recovery and push prices higher worldwide, the IMF warns. | Contesto: cronaca

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• IMF predicts Iran war will slow economic growth and raise inflation globally

Contesto

The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that a sustained military conflict involving Iran would significantly slow global economic growth and reignite inflationary pressures worldwide. The stark assessment, delivered as part of the Fund's latest economic outlook, underscores how geopolitical instability in the Middle East has become a primary threat to the post-pandemic recovery, with potential repercussions for energy markets, trade flows, and consumer prices from Washington to Tokyo. Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the IMF, elaborated on the mechanisms behind this forecast in a discussion with NPR. "The immediate channel is through energy prices," Johnson stated. A protracted conflict risks disrupting the flow of oil and gas through the critical Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly a third of the world's seaborne oil. Such a disruption would trigger a sharp spike in global energy costs, which had only recently begun to stabilize after the shocks of the past two years. This would act as a direct tax on consumers and increase production costs for industries globally. The implications extend beyond the pump and the utility bill. Higher energy costs would feed directly into core inflation, complicating the mission of central banks that have been aggressively raising interest rates to tame price increases. "Just as we were seeing some progress, this could force a reassessment of monetary policy," Johnson noted, suggesting that the Federal Reserve and its counterparts might be compelled to maintain higher rates for longer, further dampening economic activity. The combined effect of higher costs and tighter financial conditions would squeeze household budgets and business investment simultaneously. The forecast arrives at a precarious moment for the world economy. Growth in major economies like China and the Eurozone remains anemic, while high debt levels in developing nations leave them acutely vulnerable to external shocks. A new wave of inflation driven by conflict would exacerbate these vulnerabilities, potentially triggering debt crises and social unrest in import-dependent countries. The IMF's warning highlights the fragile...

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Categoria: cronaca