Iran war could plunge 32 million into poverty, says United Nations

A UN report warns that a conflict in Iran could trigger a global 'triple shock,' pushing over 32 million people into poverty and reversing development gains worldwide. | Contesto: cronaca

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• Iran war could plunge 32 million into poverty, says United Nations

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The economic fallout from a war involving Iran could push more than 32 million people worldwide into poverty, according to a stark new assessment from the United Nations Development Programme. The report, issued as international concerns mount over the fragility of a ceasefire, concludes that developing nations would bear the brunt of the crisis, facing a severe reversal in human development. The UNDP analysis describes a looming "triple shock" for the global economy, driven by soaring energy and food prices coupled with significantly weaker economic growth. This combination threatens to unravel years of progress in poverty reduction, creating what officials term a "development in reverse." The projected surge in poverty would not be confined to any single region but would ripple through vulnerable economies already strained by inflation and debt. At the heart of the crisis is the disruption to global energy markets. Iran is a major oil producer, and sustained conflict would likely trigger severe supply shocks, sending fuel costs skyrocketing. This, in turn, would dramatically increase the cost of transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture on a worldwide scale. For low-income families, especially in import-dependent countries, the spike in the price of basic commodities would be immediate and devastating. The food security impact is particularly acute. Higher energy costs make fertilizer and farm operations more expensive, while potential disruptions to shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf could strangle vital grain and foodstuff exports. Many developing countries rely on imports from the Black Sea and Middle Eastern regions, and a new war would create a second front of logistical chaos and scarcity, compounding the existing global food price crisis. Weaker economic growth, the third pillar of the shock, would further diminish government capacities to respond. Nations would see tax revenues fall just as demands for social protection and subsidies surge. The report suggests fiscal space for emergency support is already exhausted in many countries following the COVID-19 pandemic and the earlier energy crisis, leaving them with few tools to cushion their...

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Categoria: cronaca