Israel-Lebanon peace talks: Future negotiations depend on 'confidence-building measures'

Expert warns that progress on Israel-Lebanon peace is contingent on a gradual, peaceful strategy to address Hezbollah's influence within Lebanon. | Contesto: cronaca

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• Israel-Lebanon peace talks: Future negotiations depend on 'confidence-building measures'

Contesto

Future negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are dependent on the implementation of confidence-building measures, according to a leading regional analyst. Bilal Y. Saab, Senior Managing Director of TRENDS Research and Advisory, outlined this position, arguing that the path forward is not through sudden confrontation but through a sustained, peaceful strategy focused on internal Lebanese stability. He identified the Lebanese government's stated commitment to reform and its "pro-Lebanese" stance against external interference as foundational, yet precarious, elements in this process. The central obstacle, Saab contends, remains Hezbollah. He described the group as an entrenched, hybrid actor whose influence permeates Lebanon's political, military, and economic spheres. This deep integration makes any simplistic solution impossible and any abrupt attempt to dismantle its power a recipe for catastrophic internal conflict. The analyst's assessment suggests that the Israel-Lebanon diplomatic track cannot be divorced from Lebanon's own internal governance challenges, where a state and a powerful non-state actor uneasily coexist. Instead of advocating for direct external pressure or internal upheaval, Saab emphasised a gradualist approach. This strategy would pair long-term nation-building efforts within Lebanon with consistent international support, aiming to strengthen state institutions over time. The goal is to create conditions where the Lebanese state can autonomously manage its security and political landscape, thereby reducing the space in which Hezbollah operates as a parallel authority. This, in turn, would theoretically create a more stable and predictable neighbour for Israel. The call for a peaceful, incremental process underscores the complex reality facing diplomats. It moves the discussion beyond mere ceasefire lines or maritime disputes and into the fraught arena of domestic Lebanese sovereignty. International actors, according to this view, must calibrate their support to bolster the official government's capacity and legitimacy without triggering a destabilising backlash from Hezbollah, which itself draws significant external backing from Iran....

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Categoria: cronaca