Japan's demand for cement keeps falling as construction stalls

Japan's cement demand is set to hit a historic low, falling below even 1964 levels, as a prolonged construction downturn reshapes the nation's industrial landscape. | Contesto: cronaca

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• Japan's demand for cement keeps falling as construction stalls

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Japan's domestic cement demand is projected to fall to 30 million tons in fiscal 2026, according to the Japan Cement Association, a figure that would dip below the 31.05 million tons recorded in fiscal 1964. This forecast marks a historic low for an industry that once rode the wave of the nation's post-war economic miracle and subsequent infrastructure booms. The continued decline signals a profound and persistent stagnation in the country's construction sector, a core pillar of the domestic economy. The significance of falling below the 1964 benchmark is stark. That year, Japan was in the final stages of a massive national build-up for the Tokyo Olympics, a symbol of its recovery and modernization. Cement was poured into bullet train lines, highways, and the iconic venues that showcased Japan's arrival on the world stage. For demand to sink below that level six decades later, despite a larger population and economy, underscores a dramatic reversal. The industry's peak was in fiscal 1996, when demand hit 96.27 million tons, meaning the projected 2026 figure represents a collapse of nearly 70% from its high-water mark. The primary driver is a protracted and multifaceted crisis in construction. A chronic labor shortage, rising costs of materials, and demographic decline have converged to stifle new projects. The population is both shrinking and aging, reducing the need for new housing developments on the scale of previous decades. Furthermore, public works spending, long a reliable source of demand, has been constrained by the government's immense public debt, limiting large-scale infrastructure initiatives. Private investment in commercial and industrial construction has also failed to fill the gap. This relentless downturn has forced a painful consolidation and adaptation within the cement industry itself. Major producers have been shuttering plants and streamlining operations for years. The focus has shifted increasingly toward export markets to utilize excess capacity, though this exposes companies to volatile global competition and shipping costs. The industry's struggle is a microcosm of broader challenges facing Japan's mature economy: how to sustain core...

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Categoria: cronaca