كابوس خليجي - هل يسلّم ترامب إيران مفاتيح مضيق هرمز!

Gulf Arab states fear renewed US-Iran diplomacy could formalize Tehran's strategic chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz, reshaping global energy security. | Contesto: cronaca

Punti chiave

• كابوس خليجي - هل يسلّم ترامب إيران مفاتيح مضيق هرمز!

Contesto

A palpable anxiety is gripping the capitals of the Arabian Gulf as diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran advance, with regional leaders fearing the talks may ultimately cement Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic waterway, a mere 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, serves as the conduit for approximately one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil and a significant portion of its liquefied natural gas. The core concern, expressed by multiple Gulf diplomatic sources, is that a potential bilateral agreement could implicitly or explicitly recognize Iran's dominant position over the strait, handing Tehran a permanent geopolitical lever with which to influence global markets and regional power dynamics. The Strait of Hormuz is not merely a shipping lane but the central nervous system of global hydrocarbon exports. Over 20 million barrels of oil pass through it daily, originating primarily from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar. Any sustained disruption would trigger immediate price shocks and supply crises across Asia, Europe, and beyond. Iran's geographical position, with its coastline dominating the northern side of the strait and its possession of critical islands like Qeshm and Hormuz, provides it with a natural military and logistical advantage. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's naval forces have repeatedly demonstrated the capability to harass, seize, or threaten commercial vessels, a reality that has forced global navies, including the US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain, into a permanent state of vigilance. For the Gulf Arab monarchies, the stakes extend far beyond economics into the very architecture of regional security. Their strategic positioning has long been predicated on a US security umbrella that acts as a counterbalance to Iranian influence. A diplomatic deal perceived as legitimizing Iran's control over the strait would be interpreted as a fundamental recalibration of that umbrella, potentially leaving them exposed. It raises the specter of a new regional order where Tehran's ability to dictate terms of passage—or to threaten closure during crises—becomes an accepted, if...

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Categoria: cronaca