Markets are too nonchalant about Iran war’s economic toll, policymakers warn

Senior officials warn that financial markets are dangerously underestimating the severe, global economic consequences of the escalating conflict with Iran. | Contesto: cronaca

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• Markets are too nonchalant about Iran war’s economic toll, policymakers warn

Contesto

Senior economic policymakers are issuing a stark warning that global financial markets are dangerously underestimating the severe and protracted economic toll of the escalating conflict with Iran, even as crude oil prices continue their volatile ascent. The caution comes amid what the International Energy Agency (IEA) has already termed the most significant energy shock in history, suggesting the worst of the economic pain may still be ahead. The central concern is a profound disconnect between market sentiment and the complex, cascading realities of a sustained regional war. While equity and bond markets have shown periods of resilience, policymakers argue this relative calm fails to account for the deeper structural damage underway. The conflict has triggered not merely a price spike but a fundamental disruption to global energy logistics, trade routes, and supply chain security, the full consequences of which unfold over quarters, not days. Historically, markets have often priced in immediate geopolitical risk premiums on commodities, only to see them recede. This pattern may be fostering a dangerous complacency. The current situation, however, involves a major petroleum producer directly engaged in hostilities that threaten the entire Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply. The IEA's unprecedented characterization of the crisis underscores that this is not a typical supply disruption but a systemic event with the potential to reshape energy markets and inflation dynamics for years. The implications extend far beyond the energy sector. Prolonged high energy costs act as a pervasive tax on global economic activity, squeezing corporate profit margins, depressing consumer spending power, and forcing central banks into a prolonged battle against stubborn inflation. This severely limits the monetary policy tools available to support growth during a downturn. Furthermore, the shockwaves disrupt critical shipping and insurance markets, increase the cost of all transported goods, and threaten to fragment global trade patterns, imposing a heavy drag on productivity and growth. For now, the warnings from watchdogs like the IEA...

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Categoria: cronaca