Mozambique: Mozambique Relies On Rwanda's Troops to Fight Terrorism - What Happens If They Leave?

Rwanda's threat to withdraw its forces from Cabo Delgado raises critical questions about Mozambique's ability to contain a resilient insurgency. | Contesto: cronaca

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• Mozambique: Mozambique Relies On Rwanda's Troops to Fight Terrorism - What Happens If They Leave?

Contesto

The government of Rwanda has issued a stark threat to withdraw its military forces from Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province, a move that could fundamentally reshape the security landscape in a region plagued by a violent Islamist insurgency. The warning, delivered through diplomatic channels, signals a potential end to a security partnership that has been widely credited with reclaiming major towns and stabilizing key economic zones since the Rwandan deployment began in July 2021. The Rwandan contingent, numbering over 2,000 troops, arrived at the invitation of the Mozambican government following a dramatic escalation of attacks by militants affiliated with the Islamic State. Their deployment, which occurred alongside a separate mission from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), was pivotal in recapturing the strategic port town of Mocímboa da Praia and securing the perimeter of multi-billion-dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects operated by international consortia. Analysts have consistently rated the Rwandan forces as the most effective and combat-ready element in the counter-insurgency effort, often operating independently in high-risk zones. This potential withdrawal is not occurring in a vacuum. It follows months of reported tensions over the financial and logistical arrangements sustaining the Rwandan mission. While the precise details of the disagreement remain confidential, sources suggest disputes over funding, resource allocation, and the long-term strategy for the mission have reached a critical point. The threat underscores the complex, often fragile nature of international security assistance, where geopolitical goodwill is frequently underpinned by hard negotiations over cost-sharing and operational control. The implications for Mozambique are severe. A Rwandan exit would place immense pressure on the remaining SADC forces and Mozambique's own military, which has struggled with capacity, morale, and equipment issues throughout the conflict. Despite recent gains, the insurgency remains active, having adapted its tactics to smaller-scale, dispersed attacks in rural districts. The security vacuum left by a disciplined and...

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Categoria: cronaca