Oil at three-week high as US-Iran peace talks stall, and Goldman lifts price forecast – business live

Oil hits three-week high as US-Iran talks stall and Goldman Sachs raises price forecast on Middle East deadlock. | Contesto: cronaca

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• Oil at three-week high as US-Iran peace talks stall, and Goldman lifts price forecast – business live

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Oil prices climbed to a three-week high on Monday as stalled peace talks between the United States and Iran, combined with a bullish new forecast from Goldman Sachs, underscored mounting supply risks from the Middle East conflict. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose above $89 a barrel in afternoon trading, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained nearly 2 percent to trade near $83. The rally extended gains from last week, when both benchmarks posted their strongest weekly performance in months, as traders priced in a prolonged disruption to Gulf exports. Goldman Sachs, one of Wall Street’s most influential commodity houses, revised its oil price forecasts sharply upward, citing the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations and a slower-than-expected recovery in Gulf production. The bank now expects Brent crude to average around $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, up from a previous estimate of $80. For US crude, the forecast was raised to $83 a barrel for the October-to-December period, compared with an earlier projection of $75. The revision reflects a new baseline assumption that Gulf exports will normalize only by the end of June, rather than mid-May as previously anticipated, and that the region’s production recovery will be more gradual. “The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note to clients. They pointed to “net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock” as key factors amplifying the threat to global markets. The bank also outlined three alternative scenarios to illustrate the range of possible outcomes: a benign case, in which Gulf exports normalize by mid-June with no lasting capacity loss, would see Brent average just under $80 in late 2026; an adverse scenario, with exports normalizing only by end-July, would push Brent above $100; and a severely adverse scenario, combining a delayed normalization with a persistent 2.5 million barrels per day reduction in Gulf capacity, would send Brent to nearly $120. The severely adverse scenario, Goldman explained, is equivalent to the...

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Categoria: cronaca