Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’, analysis says

Analysis by major accounting firms warns of 250,000 job losses by mid-2027 as geopolitical conflict triggers a sharp decline in business confidence. | Contesto: cronaca

Punti chiave

• Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’, analysis says

Contesto

Britain faces the potential loss of a quarter of a million jobs by the middle of 2027, according to a stark new economic analysis, as the nation flirts with recession following a collapse in business confidence triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran. The warning comes from twin reports issued by top accounting firms, which have prompted Chancellor Rachel Reeves to summon bank chiefs for urgent talks aimed at containing the economic fallout. The analysis paints a grim picture of an economy on a knife-edge, where geopolitical instability has directly translated into domestic economic peril. The reports indicate that the conflict in the Middle East has acted as a catalyst, shattering the fragile confidence of UK businesses already navigating a complex post-pandemic landscape. This sudden erosion of sentiment is now forecast to manifest in significant real-world consequences, with hundreds of thousands of workers projected to be made redundant as companies retrench and investment plans are shelved. The timing of this crisis presents a severe early test for the new government and Chancellor Reeves. Her immediate move to convene meetings with the leaders of major financial institutions underscores the gravity of the situation and a recognition that stabilizing the banking sector is seen as a first line of defense against a wider economic contraction. The government's strategy appears focused on preventing a credit crunch and ensuring liquidity for businesses, though the scale of the challenge suggested by the accounting firms' research is formidable. These reports from prestigious firms carry significant weight in financial and policy circles, often serving as a bellwether for official forecasts. Their concurrent conclusion that the UK is 'flirting with recession' suggests underlying vulnerabilities in the economy that have been acutely exposed by external shock. Economists note that such a sharp downturn in business confidence typically precedes cuts to capital expenditure, hiring freezes, and ultimately, workforce reductions, creating a self-fulfilling cycle of economic decline. The projected job losses, reaching a quarter of a million, would represent one of the...

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Categoria: cronaca