UK economy on ‘stronger footing’ than expected before energy shock after February growth surge – business live

Unexpected 0.5% GDP surge in February reveals underlying economic strength, but analysts warn soaring energy prices from Middle East conflict will rapidly reverse gains. | Contesto: cronaca

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• UK economy on ‘stronger footing’ than expected before energy shock after February growth surge – business live

Contesto

The UK economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.5% in February, according to official data, placing the country on a firmer footing than anticipated before the recent global energy shock. The growth, which significantly exceeded most economists' forecasts, was accompanied by a slight upward revision to January's figures, suggesting underlying momentum was building at the start of the year. The performance indicates the economy entered a period of renewed volatility from a position of relative strength, challenging earlier assessments of a more fragile recovery. Economists point to the data as evidence that the UK's economic foundations were more resilient than recent sentiment surveys had implied. The monthly jump in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) follows a series of improving business and consumer surveys earlier in the year, which the hard data has now corroborated. This period of growth provided a temporary buffer against the headwinds that were already forming on the global stage, primarily centered on geopolitical instability and its impact on commodity markets. However, the optimism generated by February's figures is heavily tempered by events that unfolded in March. Andrew Hunter, associate director and senior economist at Moody's Analytics, stated that the upturn is 'likely to prove short lived.' He directly linked the expected slowdown to the conflict in the Middle East, which has triggered a sharp surge in global energy prices. This sudden shift in external conditions is already reflected in a pronounced weakening of key business and consumer confidence surveys conducted last month. The central concern for policymakers and businesses is the speed at which these external price shocks transmit through the domestic economy. Higher energy costs act as a direct tax on both corporate profits and household disposable income, squeezing spending and investment capacity. The February growth, while positive, is now viewed as a snapshot of a closing window—a final month of relative calm before a new wave of inflationary pressure and uncertainty began to constrain economic activity. The outlook for the spring and summer quarters is now clouded by significant...

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Categoria: cronaca