UK economy on ‘stronger footing’ than expected before Iran war after February growth surge – business live

UK economic growth surged unexpectedly in February, but analysts warn the momentum has already been shattered by soaring energy prices following conflict in the Middle East. | Contesto: cronaca

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• UK economy on ‘stronger footing’ than expected before Iran war after February growth surge – business live

Contesto

The UK economy grew by a robust 0.5% in February, significantly exceeding forecasts and suggesting the nation entered 2024 on a stronger footing than previously assessed. The Office for National Statistics reported the month-over-month Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increase alongside a slight upward revision to January's data, indicating a clear acceleration in economic activity at the start of the year. The growth was broad-based, with positive contributions from both the services and production sectors, offering a moment of relief after the technical recession recorded at the end of 2023. This positive data, however, arrives with a stark and immediate caveat. Economists uniformly warn that the February surge represents a peak that has already passed, with the geopolitical shock of escalating conflict in the Middle East—specifically involving Iran—acting as a severe drag. The primary transmission mechanism is the global energy market, where instability has sent oil and gas prices soaring. For an import-dependent economy like Britain's, this translates directly into higher costs for businesses and consumers, dampening spending and investment. Andrew Hunter, associate director and senior economist at Moody's Analytics, underscored the transient nature of the growth spurt. "The 0.5% month-over-month jump in U.K. GDP in February, and slight upward revision to January’s data, echoes the earlier improvement in the surveys and suggests the economy had more momentum at the start of this year than previously thought," Hunter stated. "However, with those surveys weakening quite sharply in March as the Middle East conflict sent energy prices soaring, this upturn is likely to prove short lived." His analysis points to a rapid reversal in business and consumer sentiment as the new economic reality set in last month. The February figures, while strong in isolation, must be viewed within the volatile context of the first quarter. The underlying momentum hinted at a gradual recovery from last year's shallow recession, potentially setting the stage for sustained, if modest, growth. Key indicators in manufacturing and services had shown improvement. Yet, this fragile foundation...

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Categoria: cronaca