UK economy showed surprise 0.5% growth before Iran war

The UK economy grew by a robust 0.5% in February, far exceeding forecasts, but analysts warn the momentum has been shattered by geopolitical conflict. | Contesto: cronaca

Punti chiave

• UK economy showed surprise 0.5% growth before Iran war

Contesto

The UK economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.5% in February, according to official figures released by the Office for National Statistics, suggesting a significant pickup in momentum before the outbreak of war in the Middle East. The expansion, driven by broad-based growth across the services and production sectors, was a marked acceleration from a revised 0.1% increase in January and far surpassed the 0.1% growth economists had forecast. This positive data painted a picture of an economy finally finding its footing after a period of stagnation and shallow recession. The services sector, the largest part of the UK economy, grew by 0.4%, while production output surged by 1.1%, with manufacturing posting its strongest growth in nearly a year. The construction sector also expanded, albeit at a slower pace. The upward revision to January's figure, from a preliminary estimate of zero growth, further bolstered the sense of a gathering recovery. Economists and business leaders had cautiously welcomed the figures as evidence that the UK was turning a corner. The performance suggested that the drag from high inflation and interest rates was beginning to ease, potentially allowing the Bank of England more room to consider future rate cuts. The data was seen as a critical indicator for the government's economic stewardship ahead of a general election expected later this year. However, this nascent optimism has been fundamentally undercut by the geopolitical shock of the conflict involving Iran. Analysts uniformly agree that the February growth spurt represents a pre-war snapshot, a moment of economic promise now overtaken by events. The immediate market turmoil, a spike in global oil prices, and the severe disruption to a critical shipping artery in the Red Sea have injected profound uncertainty into the global economic outlook. The central implication is that the anticipated recovery path for 2024 has been dramatically altered. The conflict threatens to reignite inflationary pressures through higher energy and transport costs, which could force central banks, including the Bank of England, to maintain higher interest rates for longer. This combination of stalled...

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Categoria: cronaca