UK growth forecasts slashed by IMF as Iran war hurts global economy – business live

The International Energy Agency forecasts the first annual drop in global oil demand since 2020, driven by conflict-induced price spikes and supply disruptions. | Contesto: cronaca

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• UK growth forecasts slashed by IMF as Iran war hurts global economy – business live

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The International Energy Agency has slashed its forecast for global oil consumption, predicting a decline this year for the first time since the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. The agency's latest report, released this week, directly links the downturn to the ongoing war involving Iran, which has driven up prices and disrupted supply routes, creating what analysts are calling the most significant oil market shock in decades. The IEA warns that both supply and demand are being severely damaged by the Middle Eastern conflict, with a projected second-quarter decline of 1.5 million barrels per day marking the sharpest quarterly drop since the pandemic lockdowns crippled global fuel use. The initial brunt of the demand collapse is being felt most acutely in the regions closest to the conflict. The IEA reports that the deepest cuts in oil use have so far materialized in the Middle East and Asia Pacific. Specific refined products like naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and jet fuel are seeing the most significant reductions. This regional focus underscores how the war's immediate economic fallout is concentrated, but the agency's analysis suggests this is merely the leading edge of a broader trend. The mechanics are straightforward: soaring prices and physical supply constraints are forcing industries and consumers in affected areas to curtail usage rapidly. The IEA's stark revision signals a fundamental shift in the post-pandemic energy landscape. For years, the central narrative revolved around recovering demand and managing a transition to cleaner fuels. The current crisis, however, has abruptly reintroduced classic shock dynamics of scarcity and price volatility. The forecasted annual decline shatters the expectation of steady growth and places immense strain on a global economy already grappling with persistent inflation and geopolitical instability. The scale of the projected second-quarter drop—1.5 million barrels per day—serves as a potent reminder of how quickly conflict can unravel market stability. Beyond the immediate numbers, the report carries a grave warning about the diffusion of 'demand destruction.' While the earliest and deepest cuts...

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Categoria: cronaca