West Asia conflict could cause 120 bcm of LNG supply loss from 2026-2030, says International Energy Agency

IEA warns West Asia conflict could cut 120 billion cubic meters of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030, disrupting global energy markets. | Contesto: cronaca

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• West Asia conflict could cause 120 bcm of LNG supply loss from 2026-2030, says International Energy Agency

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A prolonged conflict in West Asia could result in the loss of up to 120 billion cubic meters (bcm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply between 2026 and 2030, according to a new analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The warning comes after LNG supply growth came to a halt in March following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments. The disruption effectively reduced the combined LNG production of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates by around 10 bcm for the month alone, highlighting the vulnerability of the region’s energy infrastructure to geopolitical instability. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is a vital transit route for nearly a third of the world’s LNG trade. Any sustained closure or disruption to shipping through this strait would have immediate and severe consequences for global energy markets, particularly for countries heavily reliant on LNG imports from the Middle East. The IEA’s projections underscore the potential for a multiyear supply gap that could drive up prices and strain energy security in importing nations, especially in Asia and Europe. The March closure, which the IEA said effectively halted LNG supply growth, serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of the current energy system. Qatar and the UAE are among the world’s top LNG exporters, and their combined output accounts for a significant share of global supply. The 10 bcm loss in March represents a substantial shortfall in a single month, and the IEA’s longer-term estimate of up to 120 bcm lost over five years suggests that even intermittent disruptions could have compounding effects. The implications extend beyond immediate supply shortages. A sustained loss of LNG from the region could force importing countries to seek alternative sources, potentially accelerating investments in new production capacity in other regions, such as the United States, Australia, or Africa. However, such projects typically take years to come online, meaning that the market could face a period of heightened volatility and higher prices if the conflict persists. The IEA’s analysis did not...

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Categoria: cronaca