Will the Gulf ever be the same? Trump, Iran and the Arabian Peninsula

Iran's short-range missile strategy and pressure on global energy chokepoints expose the profound vulnerability of Gulf monarchies and challenge U.S. military dominance. | Contesto: cronaca

Punti chiave

• Will the Gulf ever be the same? Trump, Iran and the Arabian Peninsula

Contesto

The strategic landscape of the Arabian Peninsula is undergoing a fundamental and dangerous shift, as Iran demonstrates that the threat posed by its missile arsenal is not defined by intercontinental range but by devastating proximity. Analysts and regional security officials warn that Tehran's capacity to target critical infrastructure and energy routes across the narrow waters of the Gulf has effectively forced the world's most powerful military, that of the United States, into a posture of reactive deterrence and negotiation. This reality, crystallized in recent years, exposes an acute vulnerability for the wealthy monarchies lining the Gulf's southern coast and calls into question the long-term security architecture that has underpinned global oil markets for decades. The heart of this vulnerability is geographic and economic. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime passage at the mouth of the Gulf, serves as a choke point for approximately one-fifth of the world's traded oil and natural gas. Any sustained disruption here would trigger immediate global economic shockwaves. Iran's development of sophisticated short and medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and swarming drone tactics is specifically tailored to threaten this artery, as well as the refineries, ports, and pipelines of its regional rivals. This strategy renders traditional measures of military power, such as aircraft carrier groups, subject to new and complex calculations of risk, effectively neutralizing a portion of their deterrent value through the threat of asymmetric retaliation. For the Gulf Cooperation Council states—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman—this represents an existential security dilemma. Their economic lifelines and population centers are concentrated along the coastline, well within range of Iranian rocket batteries. Despite investing hundreds of billions in advanced American and European air defense systems like Patriot and THAAD, military planners privately acknowledge that a saturation attack from multiple launch sites would be difficult to completely intercept. This persistent threat has driven a dual-track policy among...

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Categoria: cronaca